๐โ๐๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐, ๐กโ๐๐ฆ ๐ค๐๐๐ ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ฆ. ๐๐๐ค, ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐น๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ ๐ถ๐๐๐ ๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐ข๐๐ ๐ก๐๐๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ก๐ข๐ก๐๐๐โ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ฆ.
๐ป๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐กโ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐โ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐๐ โ๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ?
In October 2024, then Finance Minister Colm Imbert defended the Central Statistical Office (CSO), explaining why unemployment had risen to 5.4 per cent.
โ๐โ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ก๐ฆ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐กโ๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ค๐๐ฆ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐๐ก ๐๐ ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐ข๐๐กโ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ก๐๐.โ
Imbert attributed the subsequent decline in employment to seasonal hiring patterns following Christmas.
Fast-forward to 2026. The CSO again reports 5.4 per cent unemployment, this time for the first quarter of 2026. But Imbert is no longer explaining the statistics. He is challenging them.
The Diego Martin Northeast MP alleges that 22,000 displaced government programme workers are missing from the unemployment calculations: 11,000 CEPEP workers, 7,000 URP workers and 4,000 reforestation workers.
His calculation produces unemployment of 8.7 per cent, subsequently adjusted to 8.3 per cent after accounting for employment under replacement programmes.
More troublingly, Imbert has characterised the discrepancy as deliberate manipulation.
๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐, ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐จ๐ ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐๐?
These are three different accusations, with considerably different consequences.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฒ?
The CSOโs published statistics reveal:
Period Unemployed Persons unemployed Q1 2025 4.9% 28,900 Q3 2025 4.8% 28,600 Q4 2025 4.3% 25,700 Q1 2026 5.4% 31,900
In the first quarter of 2026, the CSO recorded a labour force of 595,900, comprising 564,000 employed and 31,900 unemployed people.
Adding 22,000 people to both the unemployed population and labour force mathematically produces approximately 8.7 per cent.
๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ข๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง.
Were all 22,000 workers unemployed during the survey period? Were some re-employed, working informally, already counted or no longer actively participating in the labour market?
Job losses cannot automatically be added to unemployment totals without establishing each personโs employment status.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง?
Contrary to some political assumptions, Trinidad and Tobago measures labour-force participation through the CSOโs Continuous Sample Survey of Population.
Like the United States, it relies on household surveys rather than merely counting government programme beneficiaries. Trinidad and Tobago surveys people aged 15 and over; the American survey begins at 16 and uses different job-search criteria.
The CSO recorded a 55.1 per cent participation rate in the first quarter of 2026, with approximately 485,300 people outside the labour force.
Youth unemployment stood at 12.6 per cent.
Those outside the labour force include students, retirees, people performing home duties and others not participating in employment. They cannot automatically be classified as unemployed.
Nevertheless, the participation rate raises a larger question about economic opportunities and labour-market inactivity.
๐๐ก๐๐ฌ๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐๐.
๐๐ก๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐, ๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ญ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐
On June 6, 2024, Imbertโs Ministry of Finance welcomed the International Monetary Fundโs assessment showing unemployment declining to 3.2 per cent in 2023, following 7.2 per cent in 2020.
The numbers supported the PNMโs economic recovery narrative.
The IMF remains a user of CSO statistics. Its May 2026 report cited unemployment of 4.8 per cent for the third quarter of 2025, with a 2025 annual estimate of approximately 4.5 per cent.
The Central Bank likewise uses CSO labour-market data.
Meanwhile, the World Bankโs ILO-modelled unemployment estimate for 2025 is 3.3 per cent, a differently constructed series rather than independent validation of every CSO calculation.
International institutions may differ in their estimates, but the IMF and Central Bank incorporate CSO statistics into their economic assessments.
๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ข๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฒ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ, ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ๐จ?
Such an allegation demands evidence, not merely political arithmetic.
๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ญโ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐๐๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐จ
Perhaps the most inconvenient part of Imbertโs criticism is the institutionโs own history.
In 2016, the PNM Government approved plans to transform the CSO into an independent National Statistical Institute.
In July 2019, the Inter-American Development Bank approved US$200,000 in technical cooperation to strengthen the CSOโs capacity to produce reliable statistics.
The IDB also supported technical training associated with the Continuous Sample Survey of Population.
In 2022, the United Nations supported a US$721,400 statistical modernisation initiative.
The IMFโs Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre also provided statistical technical assistance, particularly involving national accounts and price statistics.
More significantly, the PNM administrationโs 2023 Public Sector Investment Programme allocated TT$2 million for CSO restructuring and TT$37 million for continuing statistical activities.
The CSO was administered through the Planning Ministry, not directly through Finance. Nevertheless, Imbert served as Finance Minister within the Cabinet responsible for national budgetary allocations.
Funding does not establish that every modernization objective was accomplished. But it establishes a record of institutional support.
๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐โ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ?
And if the figures are now manipulated, what specifically changed in the methodology, sampling, classification or reporting?
๐๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ค๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ?
Reports indicated that approximately 10,500 CEPEP workers were affected by contract terminations in June 2025, while another 4,608 workers and contractors were affected by the reforestation programmeโs closure.
These represented genuine economic disruptions requiring scrutiny.
But programme registers themselves have raised questions.
In September 2025, URP manager Feeroz Khan alleged that approximately 8,000 registered daily-paid workers appeared on programme records, although only around 20 per cent reportedly attended work.
Those allegations require independent verification and must not be treated as proof that every registered worker was fictitious.
Nevertheless, they expose another problem with Imbertโs calculation.
๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ฒ๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฎ๐ง๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ ๐๐๐ง ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐๐ง ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ฌ๐จ๐ง?
Were payments made for work never performed? Were individuals registered twice? Were casual workers and contractors correctly classified? How many displaced workers subsequently found employment?
Both the Government and Imbert should produce independently verifiable figures.
๐๐จ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐, ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ก๐๐?
The CSO is not above scrutiny. Indeed, its own published methodology still refers to a sampling frame based on the 1990 census, raising legitimate questions about whether the documentation is outdated or the survey framework requires further modernization.
The IMF has also recommended strengthening statistical capacity and institutional independence.
But identifying weaknesses is fundamentally different from alleging deliberate manipulation.
Imbert should publish his full calculation. The CSO should explain its treatment of displaced casual and seasonal workers. The Government should disclose verified employment and re-employment figures.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฒ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐.๐, ๐.๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐.๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ง๐ญ. ๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐๐ ๐จ ๐๐๐ง ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐จ ๐จ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฒ.
In 2024, Imbert defended the CSO when its figures supported the Governmentโs narrative. In 2026, he questions its credibility.
๐๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ฎ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฐ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ? ๐๐ซ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ?
You cannot celebrate an institutionโs figures when they favour your administration, then condemn that same institution as compromised when political power changes.
๐๐จ๐จ๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐?
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง.
