Historian Anne Applebaum says the approaching US midterm elections will test both the resilience of American democracy and the country’s standing with its allies, arguing that the outcome could influence political movements far beyond the United States.
Speaking with Financial Times chief economics commentator Martin Wolf, Applebaum portrayed the election as a referendum on the Trump administration’s approach to government and international power. Her comments offered a sharply critical assessment of the administration and a warning about what she believes is at stake for democratic institutions.
Applebaum argued that the administration does not see the United States as the leader of the democratic world and places less value on longstanding democratic allies. In her assessment, its approach to foreign relations instead prioritizes regional dominance and the interests of political and business groups surrounding the president.
At home, she accused the administration of seeking to dismantle government capacity and politicize regulatory agencies. She said the composition of the next Congress would help determine whether those changes could be checked, including through cooperation between Democrats and some Republicans.
Asked about election fairness, Applebaum described the decentralized American voting system as an important obstacle to presidential interference. Because election administration is dispersed among states and local systems, she argued, there is no single national mechanism a president can control to reject the entire result.
She nevertheless raised concerns about congressional redistricting, federal demands for state voter records and possible challenges to close results. Applebaum also discussed fears that federal personnel could intimidate eligible voters. Those comments described concerns about potential conduct, rather than establishing that such deployments would occur. She explicitly acknowledged that she could not confirm stories she had heard about possible emergency measures to disrupt an election.
The discussion also examined how American politics shapes political strategies abroad. Applebaum predicted that a strong Democratic result could give European parties nearer the political center examples of how to compete in a media environment that rewards attention and provocative behavior. A Republican victory or closely divided outcome, she suggested, could encourage movements that emulate Trump’s confrontational style.
On international security, Applebaum argued that perceptions of American unpredictability benefit Russia and China. She said weakening confidence in US alliances gives authoritarian governments material for their argument that democracies cannot deliver dependable leadership.
Despite her criticism, Applebaum resisted Wolf’s suggestion that democratic Europe should regard the United States as an enemy. She pointed to continuing relationships involving the American military, businesses and ordinary citizens. Her prescription was greater European capacity in technology and defense, alongside continued transatlantic engagement—a response to uncertainty that preserves relationships while reducing dependence.
