Trinidad and Tobago’s foreign exchange crisis will endure even after new natural gas projects begin contributing to economic activity in 2027, according to economist Dr. Dave Seerattan. Speaking at a post-budget panel hosted by the Trinidad and Tobago Manufacturers’ Association (TTMA), Seerattan argued that higher energy revenues alone cannot resolve a structural imbalance that has plagued the economy for over a decade.
The economist highlighted that Guyana and Suriname—both commodity-driven economies with rapid growth—still face similar forex challenges, proving that increased economic activity does not automatically translate into sufficient foreign currency availability. ‘Structurally, if we have low energy units or high energy units, that structural problem of foreign exchange excess demand is still with us,’ Seerattan explained.
While increased gas production in 2027 may ease some pressure on businesses seeking foreign currency for investments and imports, Seerattan cautioned that the improvement would not eliminate the underlying issue. ‘Even in 2027, we are going to still have people in the business sector complaining about shortages in the foreign exchange market,’ he warned.
Seerattan emphasised the need for a deliberate industrial policy, stronger collaboration between the government and private sector, and greater investment in non-energy industries that generate foreign exchange rather than consume it. He pointed out that reports by the Ministry of Trade and Planning over the past 20 years have repeatedly identified opportunities in tourism, yachting, and health tourism, but many proposals have yet to translate into action.
The economist also welcomed the government’s use of the Export-Import Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (EximBank) to help businesses access foreign currency, describing it as a crucial support mechanism. However, he stressed that such interventions would be more effective if backed by a broader strategy to transform the economy’s structure.
‘Foreign exchange is the lifeblood of the economy,’ Seerattan said. ‘The country’s development prospects will remain constrained if it cannot earn enough to support productive activity.’
