A leading political analyst has warned that the upcoming US midterms on November 3 may not prevent further erosion of democratic norms, describing the current administration as already operating under autocratic principles. In a Financial Times discussion, Robert Kagan, a former Republican scholar and historian, argued that the US has entered a phase of \u2018transition to dictatorship,\u2019 with key institutions\u2014including the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon\u2014subverted to serve the interests of former President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
Kagan, who has tracked Trump\u2019s presidency since 2016, stated that the administration now controls what he called \u2018power ministries\u2019\u2014agencies that, in other countries, would be independent. He cited the Justice Department\u2019s selective use of legal power against political opponents, the militarisation of federal agencies, and the purge of professional civil servants as evidence of a shift away from democratic governance. \u2018We have an FBI that is completely controlled by the administration,\u2019 he said, adding that the Pentagon had been turned into \u2018a personal arm of the president.\u2019<\/p>\n
Despite the midterms taking place, Kagan expressed concern that Trump could disrupt the electoral process if results do not favour him. \u2018It will not be difficult for him to disrupt the counting and perhaps even the seating of the next Congress,\u2019 he warned. Even in the event of a Democratic victory, Kagan suggested Trump might ignore Congress, as he has largely done during his first term, with support from his party.<\/p>\n
The scholar drew parallels to historical transitions to autocracy, noting that elections alone do not guarantee democratic stability. \u2018Elections have been part of transitions to dictatorship before,\u2019 he said, adding that the US now faces a \u2018constitutional crisis\u2019 if Trump resists a change in power. Kagan also highlighted the role of fear and opportunism among Republicans, many of whom have accommodated themselves to Trump\u2019s agenda for career or ideological reasons.<\/p>\n
Kagan\u2019s warnings come amid broader concerns about the future of US democracy. He described Trump\u2019s second term as fundamentally different from his first, enabled by a Supreme Court ruling that effectively granted the president unchecked power. \u2018The institutions were not self-enforcing,\u2019 he explained, blaming political party loyalty for undermining constitutional principles. He also identified a growing network of \u2018true believers\u2019\u2014individuals committed to reshaping the US into a hierarchical society based on race and religion, rather than liberal democratic values.<\/p>\n
The Financial Times discussion, featuring Kagan alongside Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, framed the midterms as a critical test for American democracy. While Kagan acknowledged the possibility of democratic forces prevailing, he stressed that the current administration retains the power\u2014and, in his view, the will\u2014to resist any shift in power.<\/p>\n
Kagan\u2019s family history as refugees from Nazi Germany underscored his personal stake in the conversation. \u2018My mother and father were both refugees,\u2019 he said. \u2018They had to flee Nazi Germany. These people shape my reaction to some of the things we\u2019re now seeing and hearing with the rise of the radical right in our time.\u2019 His warnings reflect a broader alarm among observers about the trajectory of US governance under Trump\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A scholar compares today\u2019s US to past democracies on the brink of collapse<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5970"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5970\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tringlobe.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}